Monday, 27 April 2009

Preview - Punchestown, 4:20 - Evening Herald Champion Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m

This race has been very informative over the years with Brave Inca and Moscow Flyer both winning this before going on to make their mark in Grade 1-rated events throughout their careers. Hurricane Fly could well follow in their footsteps as he makes his eagerly-anticipated reappearance after suffering a setback which ruled him out of the Cheltenham Festival. However, he has no easy task on his first start for four months as he must beat Go Native, who was wildly impressive when landing the prestigious Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham last time out.

Hurricane Fly had been a strong ante-post favourite for the Supreme Novices' at the Festival but to trainer Willie Mullins' disappointment, he had to miss the race through injury. Many believed he would have gone on to win that race after what he had shown at Leopardstown, where he was simply stunning in sauntering to victory in the style of a very smart horse. Before that performance, he won his first Grade 1 event in the Royal Bond at Fairyhouse, beating two smart novices in the shape of Donnas Palm and Cousin Vinny in the process. However, it was the performance that resulted in him winning his second Grade 1 which impressed so many race-watchers. After Go Native took up the running two from home, Hurricane Fly was still travelling with such ease that his jockey had no choice but to let him down and allow him to quicken up. He put in a flying leap over the last and quickly put 10 lengths between himself and Go Native, a huge margin in such a short space of time. He has an unbelievable turn of foot and has a nice mix of stamina, and if fit and well, it is hard to envisage him being beaten under Ruby Walsh. He should win his third Grade 1 in succession and if so, that will put him firmly in the picture for the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham next March.

Go Native has a lot to do to reverse Leopardstown form with Hurricane Fly but it is not entirely possible after he produced a superb display to land the Supreme Novices' Hurdle in March. He went into the race a relative unknown quantity after some smart performances in Ireland, the last of which resulted him winning a Grade 2 in good style. He went off at 12/1 that day but won in the style of a very useful animal and after travelling supremely well up the inside, jockey Paul Carberry quickly asserted over the final two flights even though his mount was all out to hold off a resurgent challenge of Alan King's Medermit. He announced himself that day as a top prospect and if Hurricane Fly has any chinks in his armour then it will be Noel Meade's six-year-old who will be most likely to exploit them.

El Dancer is up against it but deserves to take his chance after an excellent win in the Grade 2 Novices' Hurdle at Aintree. He was seemingly unfancied that day but he stayed on strongly to deny Paul Nicholls' American Trilogy, who landed the County Hurdle at Cheltenham in impressive fashion. After pulling hard early on and making a couple of errors, it was to his credit that he still had enough left to challenge the leader in the final 100 yards and return victorious. That win was on good ground and it remains to be seen whether he will cope as well on today's forecast of soft ground. It will be a good day out for Lucy Wadham's five-year-old and he looks sure to give his running again, even though he has to improve massively to trouble the top two in the betting.

Kempes looks like Willie Mullins' second choice and has form to reverse with Go Native after he finished 27 lengths behind him at Cheltenham. It must be said that he does come here off the back of a good win in Grade 2 event last time out at Fairyhouse, where he travelled easily and stayed on well to win by two lengths. He is versatile on most ground and should run well again, even though he will struggle to usurp his stablemate. Riverside Theatre could well make the placings if he improves on his last run, where he finished three lengths behind El Dancer in April. He does have some moderate form but ran well last time out despite struggling to go with the leaders over the last obstacle. He is another who will struggle to beat the first two but it is likely that he will give his all for Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty.

Selections: 1st - Hurricane Fly, 2nd - Go Native, 3rd - Kempes.

Result: 1st - Hurricane Fly, 4/6 fav, 2nd - Kempes, 12/1, 3rd - Riverside Theatre, 14/1.

Hurricane Fly put in an astonishing performance to land his third Grade 1 and put him at the head of next year's Champion Hurdle betting, where he is a general 4/1 shot. Always travelling kindly for Ruby Walsh along the inside rail, he jumped with aplomb throughout and quickened up without being seriously asked as he led over the final hurdle. There were some anxious moments for his supporters as he looked to blocked in behind two horses approaching the last obstacle but the gap appeared just in time and he shot through and cleared away up the run-in to win by an easy eight lengths. With doubts surrounding his fitness beforehand, he quickly silenced his doubters and once Ruby gave him a tap with the whip, the winner quickened up in the style of a top performer and looks the one to beat in Cheltenham's showpiece next season. Kempes gave trainer Willie Mullins a one-two and ran a superb race considering he made a bad blunder mid-race. He was always prominent for David Casey and looked likely to be swamped in the run-in but to his credit, he battled on gamely and should win another race soon. Riverside Theatre ran a blinder in third and stayed on very strongly in the final furlong to snatch third. He looks likely to get further but it could be that a strongly-run 2m is his optimum trip, he looks one to watch for next season. Go Native ran a disappointing race in fourth for Noel Meade and Paul Carberry. He sat behind Hurricane Fly throughout most of the race and looked to be going well travelling down to the last but failed to pick up when asked. He plugged on up the run-in and he may still be feeling the effects of a hard race in the Supreme at Cheltenham. El Dancer struggled throughout and it looks as if he also had a hard race last time out.

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